SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 3, 6:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/03 6:40 PM | 106 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/03 7:05 PM | 116 | 64¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 64¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/03 7:40 PM | 116 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/03 8:05 PM | 108 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/03 8:05 PM | 108 | 47¢ | 46¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/03 8:10 PM | 117 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/03 8:40 PM | 116 | 40¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/03 9:40 PM | 116 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/03 7:00 PM | 148 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm | 08/03 7:00 PM | 149 | 75¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/03 9:00 PM | 143 | 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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