SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Aug 2, 12:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 08/02 1:35 PM | 154 | 53¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 08/02 1:35 PM | 151 | 43¢ | 44¢ / 56¢ | 44¢ / 56¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/02 1:37 PM | 154 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 08/02 1:40 PM | 153 | 61¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 08/02 1:40 PM | 152 | 57¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 08/02 1:40 PM | 153 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/02 1:40 PM | 153 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 08/02 2:10 PM | 152 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 08/02 2:20 PM | 150 | 48¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 08/02 3:10 PM | 149 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 08/02 3:15 PM | 150 | 33¢ | 33¢ / 69¢ | 32¢ / 68¢ | 32¢ / 68¢ |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 08/02 4:05 PM | 150 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 08/02 4:10 PM | 151 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 08/02 4:10 PM | 150 | 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 08/02 7:20 PM | 149 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever | 08/02 1:00 PM | 155 | 65¢ | 66¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/02 3:30 PM | 147 | 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun | 08/02 7:00 PM | 152 | 82¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo | 08/02 8:30 PM | 148 | 85¢ | 87¢ / 13¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 86¢ / 14¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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