SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 8 games · updated Aug 6, 4:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/06 6:05 PM16474¢76¢ / 25¢75¢ / 25¢75¢ / 26¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/06 7:10 PM16663¢65¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/06 7:15 PM16657¢59¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/06 7:40 PM16453¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/06 9:40 PM16450¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 50¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces08/06 7:00 PM16051¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks08/06 9:00 PM15990¢92¢ / 9¢92¢ / 9¢92¢ / 9¢
Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo08/06 10:00 PM15456¢57¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 44¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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