SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 7 games · updated Aug 6, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	08/06 7:10 PM	161	63¢	65¢ / 36¢	64¢ / 36¢	– / –
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	08/06 7:15 PM	166	59¢	61¢ / 41¢	60¢ / 41¢	61¢ / 40¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	08/06 7:40 PM	165	54¢	56¢ / 45¢	55¢ / 45¢	55¢ / 45¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	08/06 9:40 PM	157	51¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢	51¢ / 50¢

Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)	Start (ET)	Books	Fair A	Kalshi A / B	Polymarket A / B	ProphetX A / B
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces	08/06 7:00 PM	161	51¢	52¢ / 49¢	52¢ / 49¢	52¢ / 49¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks	08/06 9:00 PM	160	90¢	92¢ / 9¢	92¢ / 9¢	92¢ / 9¢
Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo	08/06 10:00 PM	163	56¢	57¢ / 43¢	58¢ / 43¢	57¢ / 43¢

2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.

What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.