SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 3, 4:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/03 6:40 PM | 121 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/03 7:05 PM | 129 | 66¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/03 7:40 PM | 120 | 57¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/03 8:05 PM | 120 | 53¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/03 8:05 PM | 118 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/03 8:10 PM | 130 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/03 8:40 PM | 121 | 38¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/03 9:40 PM | 122 | 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/03 7:00 PM | 156 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm | 08/03 7:00 PM | 166 | 73¢ | 76¢ / 26¢ | 75¢ / 26¢ | 76¢ / 25¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/03 9:00 PM | 154 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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