SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Aug 4, 8:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/04 8:40 PM | 159 | 39¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/04 9:40 PM | 158 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/04 9:40 PM | 160 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/05 2:10 PM | 101 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/05 2:20 PM | 94 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/05 2:35 PM | 58 | 62¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/05 3:10 PM | 105 | 42¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/05 6:35 PM | 101 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/05 6:40 PM | 98 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/05 6:40 PM | 97 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/05 6:40 PM | 87 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/05 7:05 PM | 93 | 58¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/05 7:10 PM | 93 | 52¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/05 7:15 PM | 92 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/05 7:40 PM | 92 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/05 7:40 PM | 85 | 55¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo | 08/04 10:00 PM | 149 | 83¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 85¢ / 15¢ |
| Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/05 7:00 PM | 148 | 65¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | – / – |
| New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm | 08/05 7:00 PM | 148 | 78¢ | 80¢ / 21¢ | 81¢ / 20¢ | – / – |
| Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings | 08/05 7:30 PM | 148 | 43¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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