SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Jul 29, 8:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Connecticut Sun | Chicago Sky | WNBA | 07/30 8:00 PM | Kalshi | 36¢ | 40¢ | +4.1 | 124 |
| Connecticut Sun | Chicago Sky | WNBA | 07/30 8:00 PM | Polymarket US | 37¢ | 40¢ | +3.1 | 124 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/29 9:38 PM | 144 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/29 9:40 PM | 146 | 42¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/29 10:10 PM | 143 | 61¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/30 12:10 PM | 90 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/30 1:40 PM | 68 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/30 2:10 PM | 88 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | – / – |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/30 2:15 PM | 89 | 52¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/30 7:10 PM | 67 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/30 7:10 PM | 84 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/30 7:15 PM | 65 | 57¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries | 07/29 10:00 PM | 149 | 39¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun | 07/30 8:00 PM | 124 | 60¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/30 8:00 PM | 123 | 17¢ | 15¢ / 86¢ | 15¢ / 86¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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