SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Jul 29, 2:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers07/29 3:45 PM14549¢50¢ / 51¢48¢ / 52¢50¢ / 51¢
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies07/29 4:10 PM14359¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢61¢ / 40¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/29 6:40 PM14356¢58¢ / 44¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians07/29 7:10 PM14445¢44¢ / 57¢45¢ / 56¢44¢ / 56¢
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves07/29 7:10 PM12642¢58¢ / 43¢41¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/29 7:40 PM14343¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals07/29 7:40 PM14464¢66¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs07/29 7:45 PM14450¢51¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros07/29 9:38 PM14145¢46¢ / 56¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/29 9:40 PM14442¢42¢ / 59¢41¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/29 10:10 PM14360¢62¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/30 12:10 PM952¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/30 2:10 PM548¢49¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢ /
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs07/30 2:15 PM446¢48¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream07/29 8:00 PM14548¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢49¢ / 51¢
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries07/29 10:00 PM14940¢39¢ / 61¢40¢ / 61¢39¢ / 62¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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