SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Jul 31, 3:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/31 6:10 PM15346¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies07/31 7:05 PM15052¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals07/31 7:07 PM15063¢64¢ / 38¢63¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins07/31 7:10 PM15053¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox07/31 7:10 PM15155¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 43¢56¢ / 45¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/31 7:10 PM15457¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals07/31 7:15 PM15252¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers07/31 8:15 PM15254¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals07/31 8:40 PM15250¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢49¢ / 51¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers07/31 9:38 PM15140¢40¢ / 61¢40¢ / 60¢40¢ / 61¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers07/31 9:40 PM15043¢44¢ / 57¢41¢ / 59¢ /
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants07/31 9:45 PM14957¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox07/31 10:10 PM14855¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins07/31 10:10 PM15160¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals08/01 3:07 PM8056¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings07/31 7:30 PM15042¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢
Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm07/31 7:30 PM14683¢85¢ / 16¢85¢ / 16¢85¢ / 16¢
Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever07/31 10:00 PM15027¢26¢ / 75¢26¢ / 75¢26¢ / 75¢
Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces08/01 1:00 PM9631¢30¢ / 71¢29¢ / 72¢ /
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty08/01 3:00 PM9445¢44¢ / 57¢43¢ / 58¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
4 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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