SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 17 games · updated Aug 4, 2:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/04 6:35 PM15658¢59¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/04 6:40 PM15771¢73¢ / 28¢72¢ / 28¢72¢ / 29¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/04 6:40 PM15755¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/04 6:40 PM15758¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/04 7:05 PM15964¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/04 7:10 PM15855¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/04 7:15 PM15657¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/04 7:40 PM15543¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/04 7:40 PM15857¢59¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/04 8:05 PM15736¢36¢ / 65¢35¢ / 65¢36¢ / 65¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/04 8:05 PM15764¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/04 8:10 PM15654¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/04 8:40 PM15740¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/04 9:40 PM15753¢54¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/04 9:40 PM15554¢53¢ / 48¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/05 2:10 PM251¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo08/04 10:00 PM14683¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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