SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 22 games · updated Jul 31, 6:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/31 7:05 PM | 150 | 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/31 7:07 PM | 148 | 63¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/31 7:10 PM | 152 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/31 7:10 PM | 149 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/31 7:10 PM | 148 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/31 7:15 PM | 153 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 07/31 8:15 PM | 151 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 07/31 8:40 PM | 149 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/31 9:38 PM | 149 | 40¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 61¢ | 39¢ / 61¢ |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 07/31 9:40 PM | 148 | 43¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 07/31 9:45 PM | 145 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 07/31 10:10 PM | 144 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 07/31 10:10 PM | 149 | 60¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/01 3:07 PM | 91 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 08/01 4:10 PM | 88 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 08/01 4:10 PM | 89 | 60¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 08/01 4:10 PM | 89 | 61¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings | 07/31 7:30 PM | 149 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ |
| Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm | 07/31 7:30 PM | 146 | 83¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ |
| Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever | 07/31 10:00 PM | 148 | 27¢ | 26¢ / 75¢ | 26¢ / 75¢ | 26¢ / 75¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/01 1:00 PM | 136 | 31¢ | 30¢ / 71¢ | 29¢ / 72¢ | – / – |
| Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty | 08/01 3:00 PM | 136 | 45¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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