SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Aug 4, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/04 6:35 PM15758¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/04 6:40 PM15773¢74¢ / 27¢74¢ / 26¢74¢ / 26¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/04 6:40 PM15755¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/04 6:40 PM15955¢57¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/04 7:05 PM15864¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/04 7:10 PM15957¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/04 7:15 PM15658¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/04 7:40 PM15843¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/04 7:40 PM15757¢59¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/04 8:05 PM15736¢36¢ / 64¢36¢ / 64¢36¢ / 64¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/04 8:05 PM15864¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 35¢
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/04 8:10 PM16056¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢57¢ / 44¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/04 8:40 PM15739¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 61¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/04 9:40 PM15752¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/04 9:40 PM15853¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 48¢ /
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/05 2:10 PM7851¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/05 2:20 PM5053¢53¢ / 47¢53¢ / 48¢ /
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/05 2:35 PM3662¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/05 3:10 PM7942¢43¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo08/04 10:00 PM14983¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
4 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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