SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 14 games · updated Aug 6, 10:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/06 12:35 PM | 155 | 63¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/06 12:40 PM | 164 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/06 1:10 PM | 153 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/06 2:10 PM | 156 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/06 2:20 PM | 163 | 48¢ | 49¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/06 4:10 PM | 162 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/06 6:05 PM | 161 | 73¢ | 76¢ / 25¢ | 75¢ / 25¢ | 76¢ / 25¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/06 7:10 PM | 155 | 62¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/06 7:15 PM | 156 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/06 7:40 PM | 155 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/06 9:40 PM | 151 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/06 7:00 PM | 159 | 48¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 52¢ |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/06 9:00 PM | 154 | 89¢ | 92¢ / 9¢ | 91¢ / 10¢ | – / – |
| Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo | 08/06 10:00 PM | 159 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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