SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 3, 1:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/03 6:40 PM12859¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 41¢ /
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/03 7:05 PM12965¢67¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢66¢ / 34¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/03 7:40 PM12657¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/03 8:05 PM12653¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/03 8:05 PM12747¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢ /
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/03 8:10 PM12754¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/03 8:40 PM12740¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/03 9:40 PM12952¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces08/03 7:00 PM16255¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢58¢ / 43¢
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm08/03 7:00 PM16673¢76¢ / 26¢76¢ / 25¢75¢ / 26¢
Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury08/03 9:00 PM16247¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 55¢47¢ / 54¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
6 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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