SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 31, 8:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 07/31 2:20 PM | 149 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/31 6:10 PM | 149 | 45¢ | 46¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/31 7:05 PM | 139 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/31 7:07 PM | 147 | 61¢ | 62¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/31 7:10 PM | 146 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/31 7:10 PM | 147 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/31 7:10 PM | 149 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/31 7:15 PM | 147 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 07/31 8:15 PM | 149 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 07/31 8:40 PM | 147 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/31 9:38 PM | 148 | 40¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 07/31 9:40 PM | 144 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 07/31 9:45 PM | 134 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 07/31 10:10 PM | 135 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 07/31 10:10 PM | 146 | 62¢ | 64¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings | 07/31 7:30 PM | 147 | 42¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ |
| Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm | 07/31 7:30 PM | 146 | 84¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 85¢ / 16¢ |
| Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever | 07/31 10:00 PM | 148 | 26¢ | 27¢ / 75¢ | 27¢ / 74¢ | 27¢ / 73¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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