SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 3, 10:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Chicago Sky | Phoenix Mercury | WNBA | 08/03 9:00 PM | ProphetX | 45¢ | 48¢ | +2.6 | 155 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/03 6:40 PM | 114 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/03 7:05 PM | 116 | 65¢ | 67¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/03 7:40 PM | 116 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/03 8:05 PM | 115 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/03 8:05 PM | 115 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/03 8:10 PM | 116 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/03 8:40 PM | 116 | 39¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 40¢ / 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/03 9:40 PM | 116 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/03 7:00 PM | 156 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm | 08/03 7:00 PM | 158 | 73¢ | 76¢ / 24¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 76¢ / 24¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/03 9:00 PM | 155 | 48¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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