SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 25 games · updated Aug 1, 3:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins08/01 4:10 PM14955¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins08/01 4:10 PM14960¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox08/01 4:10 PM14861¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 39¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/01 6:40 PM15047¢47¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 53¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/01 7:05 PM14943¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers08/01 7:10 PM14846¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/01 7:15 PM15052¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/01 7:15 PM15061¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/01 7:15 PM14960¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/01 8:10 PM14952¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢– / –
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants08/01 8:40 PM14958¢58¢ / 43¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox08/01 9:10 PM14660¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 39¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers08/01 9:38 PM14947¢48¢ / 54¢48¢ / 53¢47¢ / 53¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers08/01 9:40 PM14940¢41¢ / 61¢39¢ / 61¢40¢ / 60¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/02 1:35 PM3553¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/02 1:35 PM3545¢45¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢– / –
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals08/02 1:37 PM3551¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/02 1:40 PM3557¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢– / –
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox08/02 1:40 PM3557¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢– / –
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins08/02 1:40 PM750¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/02 1:40 PM1958¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢– / –
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/02 2:20 PM1945¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/02 3:10 PM852¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers08/02 3:15 PM1033¢32¢ / 69¢32¢ / 68¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever08/02 1:00 PM11767¢68¢ / 33¢67¢ / 34¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
4 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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