SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 2, 10:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/03 6:40 PM7857¢59¢ / 43¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 43¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/03 7:05 PM10363¢65¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢64¢ / 37¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/03 7:40 PM10357¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/03 8:05 PM9750¢52¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/03 8:05 PM9647¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 54¢48¢ / 54¢
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/03 8:10 PM10355¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/03 8:40 PM9841¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/03 9:40 PM9850¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces08/03 7:00 PM14452¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 48¢
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm08/03 7:00 PM14775¢78¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢
Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury08/03 9:00 PM14351¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
© SharpDelta · sharpdelta.com