SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Aug 2, 9:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/02 1:35 PM15053¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/02 1:35 PM14745¢44¢ / 56¢44¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals08/02 1:37 PM14752¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/02 1:40 PM14859¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢ /
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox08/02 1:40 PM14759¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins08/02 1:40 PM14747¢48¢ / 54¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/02 1:40 PM15058¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers08/02 2:10 PM14855¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 46¢
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/02 2:20 PM14946¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/02 3:10 PM14654¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers08/02 3:15 PM14933¢32¢ / 69¢32¢ / 68¢33¢ / 68¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers08/02 4:05 PM14848¢49¢ / 52¢48¢ / 52¢49¢ / 52¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins08/02 4:10 PM14756¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢ /
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants08/02 4:10 PM14957¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox08/02 7:20 PM14459¢61¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever08/02 1:00 PM15464¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢
Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks08/02 3:30 PM14751¢50¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun08/02 7:00 PM15381¢84¢ / 17¢84¢ / 17¢84¢ / 17¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo08/02 8:30 PM15385¢87¢ / 14¢87¢ / 14¢86¢ / 14¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
6 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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