SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Aug 5, 8:16 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/05 2:10 PM | 157 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/05 2:20 PM | 154 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/05 2:35 PM | 154 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/05 3:10 PM | 156 | 40¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 40¢ / 60¢ | 40¢ / 61¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/05 6:35 PM | 148 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/05 6:40 PM | 155 | 55¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/05 6:40 PM | 158 | 61¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/05 6:40 PM | 157 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/05 7:05 PM | 155 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/05 7:10 PM | 158 | 53¢ | 55¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/05 7:15 PM | 158 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/05 7:40 PM | 155 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/05 7:40 PM | 156 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/05 9:40 PM | 158 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/05 9:40 PM | 155 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/05 7:00 PM | 162 | 66¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 34¢ |
| New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm | 08/05 7:00 PM | 159 | 75¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | 77¢ / 24¢ | – / – |
| Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings | 08/05 7:30 PM | 162 | 43¢ | 44¢ / 58¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ |
| Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/05 9:00 PM | 161 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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