SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 17 games · updated Aug 1, 2:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/01 3:07 PM | 132 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 08/01 4:10 PM | 136 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 08/01 4:10 PM | 131 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 08/01 4:10 PM | 131 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/01 6:40 PM | 131 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 08/01 7:05 PM | 132 | 43¢ | 44¢ / 57¢ | 43¢ / 57¢ | 44¢ / 58¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 08/01 7:10 PM | 130 | 46¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 08/01 7:15 PM | 135 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 08/01 7:15 PM | 137 | 59¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 08/01 7:15 PM | 131 | 63¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 08/01 8:10 PM | 131 | 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 08/01 8:40 PM | 114 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 46¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 08/01 9:10 PM | 130 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 08/01 9:38 PM | 131 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 08/01 9:40 PM | 130 | 44¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 55¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/01 1:00 PM | 139 | 31¢ | 30¢ / 71¢ | 29¢ / 72¢ | 31¢ / 71¢ |
| Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty | 08/01 3:00 PM | 142 | 43¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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