SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 14 games · updated Aug 3, 9:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/03 9:40 PM13250¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢50¢ / 51¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/04 6:35 PM7155¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/04 6:40 PM10566¢68¢ / 33¢68¢ / 32¢ /
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/04 6:40 PM10456¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/04 6:40 PM10456¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢ /
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/04 7:05 PM6359¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢ /
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/04 7:10 PM7753¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/04 7:15 PM7655¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/04 7:40 PM10443¢43¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/04 7:40 PM10359¢60¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/04 8:05 PM10136¢36¢ / 65¢35¢ / 65¢ /
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/04 8:05 PM6363¢65¢ / 36¢65¢ / 36¢ /
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/04 8:10 PM10054¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/04 8:40 PM4445¢45¢ / 57¢44¢ / 56¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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