SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Jul 29, 8:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

TeamVsSportStart (ET)VenueAskFairSharp ΔBooks
Connecticut SunChicago SkyWNBA07/30 8:00 PMKalshi36¢40¢+4.1124
Connecticut SunChicago SkyWNBA07/30 8:00 PMPolymarket US37¢40¢+3.1124

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros07/29 9:38 PM14446¢45¢ / 56¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 56¢
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/29 9:40 PM14642¢42¢ / 59¢41¢ / 59¢41¢ / 59¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/29 10:10 PM14361¢63¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers07/30 12:10 PM9053¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢ /
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals07/30 1:40 PM6856¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢ /
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees07/30 2:10 PM8851¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢ /
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs07/30 2:15 PM8952¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/30 7:10 PM6749¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢ /
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins07/30 7:10 PM8454¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals07/30 7:15 PM6557¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Phoenix Mercury vs Golden State Valkyries07/29 10:00 PM14939¢38¢ / 63¢38¢ / 63¢38¢ / 62¢
Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun07/30 8:00 PM12460¢65¢ / 36¢64¢ / 37¢ /
Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx07/30 8:00 PM12317¢15¢ / 86¢15¢ / 86¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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