SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 14 games · updated Aug 5, 10:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/06 12:35 PM | 123 | 59¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/06 12:40 PM | 116 | 59¢ | 61¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/06 1:10 PM | 142 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/06 2:10 PM | 144 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/06 2:20 PM | 136 | 47¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 50¢ / 53¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/06 4:10 PM | 143 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/06 6:05 PM | 124 | 73¢ | 75¢ / 26¢ | 75¢ / 25¢ | 75¢ / 26¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/06 7:10 PM | 140 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 63¢ / 37¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/06 7:15 PM | 142 | 59¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/06 7:40 PM | 136 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/06 9:40 PM | 131 | 51¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces | 08/06 7:00 PM | 159 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | – / – |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/06 9:00 PM | 21 | 84¢ | 92¢ / 10¢ | 91¢ / 10¢ | – / – |
| Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo | 08/06 10:00 PM | 149 | 55¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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