SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Aug 3, 11:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/04 6:35 PM | 96 | 55¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/04 6:40 PM | 108 | 68¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ | 69¢ / 31¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/04 6:40 PM | 107 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/04 6:40 PM | 106 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/04 7:05 PM | 81 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 41¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/04 7:10 PM | 86 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/04 7:15 PM | 100 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 58¢ / 46¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/04 7:40 PM | 108 | 43¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/04 7:40 PM | 107 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 61¢ / 41¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/04 8:05 PM | 109 | 36¢ | 35¢ / 66¢ | 35¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 66¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/04 8:05 PM | 98 | 63¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 37¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/04 8:10 PM | 107 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/04 8:40 PM | 89 | 45¢ | 45¢ / 57¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | – / – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/04 9:40 PM | 73 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/04 9:40 PM | 72 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo | 08/04 10:00 PM | 119 | 86¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 88¢ / 13¢ | 88¢ / 14¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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