SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 18 games · updated Jul 31, 11:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees07/31 2:20 PM15058¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/31 6:10 PM15046¢46¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢47¢ / 53¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies07/31 7:05 PM14351¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢52¢ / 49¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals07/31 7:07 PM14762¢63¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢63¢ / 38¢
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins07/31 7:10 PM14854¢55¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox07/31 7:10 PM14756¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 43¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/31 7:10 PM15156¢56¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals07/31 7:15 PM14952¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢51¢ / 49¢
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers07/31 8:15 PM15054¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals07/31 8:40 PM14950¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers07/31 9:38 PM14940¢40¢ / 61¢39¢ / 61¢40¢ / 61¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers07/31 9:40 PM14343¢44¢ / 57¢41¢ / 59¢43¢ / 57¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants07/31 9:45 PM14557¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 43¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox07/31 10:10 PM14353¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins07/31 10:10 PM14861¢62¢ / 38¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings07/31 7:30 PM14741¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢41¢ / 60¢
Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm07/31 7:30 PM14684¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 15¢86¢ / 16¢
Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever07/31 10:00 PM14726¢27¢ / 75¢27¢ / 74¢27¢ / 74¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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