SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Aug 6, 8:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/06 9:40 PM | 159 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 51¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/07 6:40 PM | 66 | 65¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | – / – |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets | 08/07 6:40 PM | 104 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds | 08/07 6:45 PM | 1 | 54¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves | 08/07 7:05 PM | 96 | 58¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | 08/07 7:10 PM | 38 | 68¢ | 71¢ / 29¢ | 71¢ / 29¢ | – / – |
| Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/07 7:10 PM | 116 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ | – / – |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins | 08/07 7:40 PM | 1 | 64¢ | 64¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | 08/07 7:40 PM | 56 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 53¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs | 08/07 8:10 PM | 1 | 39¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | – / – |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies | 08/07 8:15 PM | 123 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
| Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles | 08/07 8:15 PM | 125 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/06 9:00 PM | 161 | 90¢ | 92¢ / 9¢ | 92¢ / 9¢ | 92¢ / 10¢ |
| Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo | 08/06 10:00 PM | 165 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream | 08/07 7:30 PM | 128 | 40¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | – / – |
| Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury | 08/07 7:30 PM | 127 | 35¢ | 33¢ / 68¢ | 33¢ / 68¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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