SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 7 games · updated Aug 2, 3:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers08/02 4:05 PM15447¢48¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 53¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins08/02 4:10 PM15456¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants08/02 4:10 PM15153¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox08/02 7:20 PM14862¢63¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢62¢ / 38¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks08/02 3:30 PM14851¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 50¢
Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun08/02 7:00 PM15281¢83¢ / 18¢84¢ / 17¢84¢ / 17¢
Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo08/02 8:30 PM15286¢88¢ / 13¢87¢ / 14¢87¢ / 14¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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