SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Jul 30, 9:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/30 9:40 PM | 146 | 38¢ | 36¢ / 64¢ | 36¢ / 64¢ | 37¢ / 63¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 07/30 9:40 PM | 150 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/30 10:10 PM | 150 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 07/31 2:20 PM | 129 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/31 6:10 PM | 121 | 46¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/31 7:05 PM | 13 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 07/31 7:07 PM | 123 | 61¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/31 7:10 PM | 122 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 07/31 7:10 PM | 125 | 56¢ | 58¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/31 7:10 PM | 125 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/31 7:15 PM | 117 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 07/31 8:15 PM | 123 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 07/31 8:40 PM | 123 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty | 07/30 10:00 PM | 153 | 62¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ | 64¢ / 38¢ |
| Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings | 07/31 7:30 PM | 138 | 42¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ |
| Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm | 07/31 7:30 PM | 134 | 85¢ | 87¢ / 15¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | 87¢ / 15¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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