SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Jul 31, 8:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals07/31 8:40 PM15449¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢49¢ / 51¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers07/31 9:38 PM15340¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 61¢39¢ / 61¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers07/31 9:40 PM15043¢44¢ / 57¢41¢ / 59¢43¢ / 57¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants07/31 9:45 PM14758¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox07/31 10:10 PM14455¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins07/31 10:10 PM15360¢60¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢60¢ / 41¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals08/01 3:07 PM9456¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢ /
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins08/01 4:10 PM9354¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins08/01 4:10 PM9260¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢ /
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox08/01 4:10 PM9360¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢ /
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/01 6:40 PM8947¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 53¢ /
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/01 7:05 PM8844¢44¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢ /
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers08/01 7:10 PM8046¢47¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/01 7:15 PM8147¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/01 7:15 PM8259¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/01 7:15 PM8063¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/01 8:10 PM7852¢52¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Portland Fire vs Indiana Fever07/31 10:00 PM14727¢26¢ / 75¢26¢ / 75¢26¢ / 75¢
Chicago Sky vs Las Vegas Aces08/01 1:00 PM13430¢30¢ / 71¢29¢ / 72¢31¢ / 71¢
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty08/01 3:00 PM13545¢44¢ / 57¢43¢ / 58¢44¢ / 58¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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