SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 11 games · updated Aug 3, 8:15 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/03 6:40 PM10658¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/03 7:05 PM11564¢66¢ / 35¢65¢ / 35¢66¢ / 35¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/03 7:40 PM11557¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢57¢ / 43¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/03 8:05 PM11050¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 51¢
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/03 8:05 PM11547¢46¢ / 55¢46¢ / 54¢46¢ / 54¢
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/03 8:10 PM11555¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢56¢ / 44¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/03 8:40 PM11740¢41¢ / 61¢41¢ / 60¢ /
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/03 9:40 PM11551¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢52¢ / 49¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces08/03 7:00 PM15552¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢55¢ / 47¢
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm08/03 7:00 PM15773¢77¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢75¢ / 26¢
Chicago Sky vs Phoenix Mercury08/03 9:00 PM15150¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢49¢ / 52¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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