SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 27 games · updated Aug 1, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/01 6:40 PM15248¢47¢ / 53¢47¢ / 54¢48¢ / 53¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/01 7:05 PM15142¢42¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢43¢ / 58¢
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers08/01 7:10 PM15247¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/01 7:15 PM14852¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/01 7:15 PM15261¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/01 7:15 PM15060¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 38¢
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/01 8:10 PM15254¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢55¢ / 46¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants08/01 8:40 PM14958¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox08/01 9:10 PM14760¢62¢ / 39¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers08/01 9:38 PM15242¢43¢ / 58¢42¢ / 58¢42¢ / 59¢
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers08/01 9:40 PM15139¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢39¢ / 62¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals08/02 1:35 PM7653¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢– / –
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies08/02 1:35 PM7446¢45¢ / 56¢45¢ / 56¢– / –
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals08/02 1:37 PM7651¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢– / –
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks08/02 1:40 PM7556¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢– / –
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox08/02 1:40 PM7857¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢– / –
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins08/02 1:40 PM7549¢49¢ / 51¢49¢ / 51¢– / –
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/02 1:40 PM7657¢57¢ / 44¢58¢ / 43¢– / –
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers08/02 2:10 PM5853¢53¢ / 48¢52¢ / 48¢– / –
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees08/02 2:20 PM6846¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢– / –
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals08/02 3:10 PM6751¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 49¢– / –
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers08/02 3:15 PM6734¢32¢ / 69¢32¢ / 68¢– / –
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers08/02 4:05 PM6950¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢– / –
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins08/02 4:10 PM7055¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 45¢– / –
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants08/02 4:10 PM6856¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever08/02 1:00 PM14266¢68¢ / 34¢67¢ / 34¢– / –
Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks08/02 3:30 PM14351¢50¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢– / –
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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