SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 13 games · updated Jul 30, 2:15 AM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/30 12:10 PM | 128 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/30 1:40 PM | 135 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/30 2:10 PM | 129 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 50¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/30 2:15 PM | 129 | 52¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/30 7:10 PM | 127 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/30 7:10 PM | 136 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/30 7:15 PM | 127 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/30 9:40 PM | 104 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 61¢ | 40¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 66¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 07/30 9:40 PM | 108 | 54¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | 56¢ / 46¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/30 10:10 PM | 135 | 58¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun | 07/30 8:00 PM | 135 | 62¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 37¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/30 8:00 PM | 134 | 16¢ | 16¢ / 86¢ | 16¢ / 86¢ | 16¢ / 86¢ |
| Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty | 07/30 10:00 PM | 136 | 64¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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