SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 10 games · updated Jul 30, 4:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/30 7:10 PM14949¢48¢ / 53¢48¢ / 52¢48¢ / 52¢
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins07/30 7:10 PM14854¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals07/30 7:15 PM15058¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/30 9:40 PM14838¢36¢ / 65¢36¢ / 64¢36¢ / 65¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants07/30 9:40 PM14958¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/30 10:10 PM14759¢60¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees07/31 2:20 PM3856¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun07/30 8:00 PM15365¢66¢ / 35¢66¢ / 35¢67¢ / 34¢
Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx07/30 8:00 PM15417¢15¢ / 86¢15¢ / 86¢14¢ / 87¢
Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty07/30 10:00 PM15461¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 38¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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