SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 16 games · updated Jul 30, 9:15 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox07/30 9:40 PM14638¢36¢ / 64¢36¢ / 64¢37¢ / 63¢
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants07/30 9:40 PM15060¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢61¢ / 40¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners07/30 10:10 PM15058¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 42¢
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees07/31 2:20 PM12957¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢ /
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates07/31 6:10 PM12146¢47¢ / 55¢46¢ / 54¢ /
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies07/31 7:05 PM1352¢53¢ / 49¢52¢ / 48¢ /
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals07/31 7:07 PM12361¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢ /
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins07/31 7:10 PM12255¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox07/31 7:10 PM12556¢58¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks07/31 7:10 PM12555¢55¢ / 46¢56¢ / 45¢ /
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals07/31 7:15 PM11754¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢ /
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers07/31 8:15 PM12354¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals07/31 8:40 PM12350¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty07/30 10:00 PM15362¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 38¢
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings07/31 7:30 PM13842¢41¢ / 59¢42¢ / 59¢43¢ / 59¢
Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm07/31 7:30 PM13485¢87¢ / 15¢87¢ / 14¢87¢ / 15¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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