SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 20 games · updated Aug 4, 4:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | 08/04 6:35 PM | 156 | 58¢ | 60¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | 08/04 6:40 PM | 152 | 71¢ | 73¢ / 28¢ | 73¢ / 28¢ | 73¢ / 28¢ |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | 08/04 6:40 PM | 155 | 55¢ | 57¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets | 08/04 6:40 PM | 157 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/04 7:05 PM | 156 | 64¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 35¢ | 64¢ / 36¢ |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | 08/04 7:10 PM | 158 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | 08/04 7:15 PM | 158 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | 08/04 7:40 PM | 157 | 43¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/04 7:40 PM | 158 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/04 8:05 PM | 158 | 36¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 36¢ / 65¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/04 8:05 PM | 158 | 63¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/04 8:10 PM | 159 | 54¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/04 8:40 PM | 158 | 39¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | 08/04 9:40 PM | 156 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 47¢ |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 08/04 9:40 PM | 159 | 53¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ | 53¢ / 48¢ |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | 08/05 2:10 PM | 45 | 51¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers | 08/05 2:20 PM | 12 | 53¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | 52¢ / 48¢ | – / – |
| Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants | 08/05 2:35 PM | 1 | 59¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays | 08/05 3:10 PM | 35 | 42¢ | 43¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo | 08/04 10:00 PM | 147 | 83¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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