SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 10 games · updated Aug 6, 2:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays08/06 2:20 PM15450¢51¢ / 51¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/06 4:10 PM16653¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢53¢ / 47¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/06 6:05 PM16575¢76¢ / 24¢75¢ / 25¢76¢ / 24¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/06 7:10 PM16363¢64¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢64¢ / 36¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/06 7:15 PM15957¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/06 7:40 PM15753¢55¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/06 9:40 PM16450¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces08/06 7:00 PM15251¢51¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢52¢ / 49¢
Minnesota Lynx vs Los Angeles Sparks08/06 9:00 PM15190¢92¢ / 9¢92¢ / 9¢92¢ / 9¢
Portland Fire vs Toronto Tempo08/06 10:00 PM15156¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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