SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 21 games · updated Aug 1, 9:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 08/01 9:38 PM | 153 | 43¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 08/01 9:40 PM | 152 | 38¢ | 39¢ / 63¢ | 39¢ / 62¢ | 38¢ / 62¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 08/02 1:35 PM | 125 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies | 08/02 1:35 PM | 131 | 46¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | 45¢ / 56¢ | – / – |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals | 08/02 1:37 PM | 129 | 52¢ | 52¢ / 49¢ | 51¢ / 49¢ | – / – |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 08/02 1:40 PM | 130 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 56¢ / 44¢ | – / – |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | 08/02 1:40 PM | 131 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 08/02 1:40 PM | 127 | 49¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 51¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 08/02 1:40 PM | 129 | 58¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | – / – |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | 08/02 2:10 PM | 127 | 53¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | – / – |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees | 08/02 2:20 PM | 130 | 46¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals | 08/02 3:10 PM | 122 | 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | 51¢ / 50¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | 08/02 3:15 PM | 87 | 33¢ | 32¢ / 69¢ | 32¢ / 68¢ | – / – |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | 08/02 4:05 PM | 87 | 49¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins | 08/02 4:10 PM | 89 | 56¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | 56¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 08/02 4:10 PM | 89 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox | 08/02 7:20 PM | 86 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever | 08/02 1:00 PM | 144 | 66¢ | 68¢ / 34¢ | 67¢ / 34¢ | – / – |
| Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks | 08/02 3:30 PM | 143 | 47¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | 47¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun | 08/02 7:00 PM | 143 | 81¢ | 85¢ / 17¢ | 84¢ / 17¢ | – / – |
| Golden State Valkyries vs Toronto Tempo | 08/02 8:30 PM | 139 | 85¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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