SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 19 games · updated Aug 5, 10:16 AM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays08/05 2:10 PM15963¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 37¢64¢ / 36¢
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers08/05 2:20 PM14953¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 46¢
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants08/05 2:35 PM15062¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢62¢ / 39¢
Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays08/05 3:10 PM15140¢41¢ / 61¢40¢ / 60¢40¢ / 60¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/05 6:35 PM15854¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢54¢ / 47¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/05 6:40 PM15158¢58¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢58¢ / 42¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/05 6:40 PM16063¢64¢ / 37¢63¢ / 37¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/05 6:40 PM15950¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 50¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/05 7:05 PM14959¢60¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢60¢ / 41¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/05 7:10 PM16055¢56¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢56¢ / 45¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/05 7:15 PM15254¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢54¢ / 47¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/05 7:40 PM14853¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/05 7:40 PM15055¢55¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 46¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/05 9:40 PM15247¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢47¢ / 54¢
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/05 9:40 PM15058¢59¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury08/05 7:00 PM15566¢66¢ / 35¢66¢ / 35¢68¢ / 34¢
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm08/05 7:00 PM15475¢77¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢76¢ / 25¢
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings08/05 7:30 PM15644¢44¢ / 57¢44¢ / 57¢44¢ / 57¢
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks08/05 9:00 PM15556¢57¢ / 45¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
2 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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