SharpDelta

The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 22 games · updated Aug 5, 6:16 PM ET

Positive Sharp Delta right now

No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.

MLB board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/05 6:35 PM16256¢57¢ / 44¢56¢ / 44¢57¢ / 43¢
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/05 6:40 PM16360¢61¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢61¢ / 40¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/05 6:40 PM16464¢66¢ / 36¢65¢ / 35¢65¢ / 36¢
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/05 6:40 PM16351¢52¢ / 49¢51¢ / 50¢51¢ / 49¢
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals08/05 7:05 PM16359¢60¢ / 42¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox08/05 7:10 PM16556¢59¢ / 43¢58¢ / 42¢57¢ / 43¢
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins08/05 7:15 PM16454¢56¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 46¢
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins08/05 7:40 PM16252¢54¢ / 48¢53¢ / 48¢53¢ / 47¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/05 7:40 PM16255¢56¢ / 46¢55¢ / 45¢55¢ / 45¢
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres08/05 9:40 PM15946¢46¢ / 55¢45¢ / 55¢45¢ / 56¢
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/05 9:40 PM16157¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 41¢59¢ / 42¢
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels08/06 12:35 PM6160¢61¢ / 40¢61¢ / 39¢ /
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics08/06 12:40 PM6859¢60¢ / 40¢60¢ / 40¢ /
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets08/06 1:10 PM9150¢50¢ / 51¢50¢ / 51¢ /
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates08/06 2:10 PM8356¢57¢ / 45¢57¢ / 43¢ /
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays08/06 2:20 PM9748¢49¢ / 52¢49¢ / 51¢ /
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers08/06 4:10 PM9054¢55¢ / 46¢54¢ / 46¢ /
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals08/06 6:05 PM5673¢75¢ / 27¢75¢ / 26¢ /
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.

WNBA board

Matchup (A vs B)Start (ET)BooksFair AKalshi A / BPolymarket A / BProphetX A / B
Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury08/05 7:00 PM16369¢70¢ / 32¢70¢ / 31¢69¢ / 32¢
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm08/05 7:00 PM16074¢77¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢77¢ / 24¢
Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings08/05 7:30 PM16246¢46¢ / 55¢47¢ / 54¢45¢ / 56¢
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks08/05 9:00 PM16257¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢57¢ / 44¢
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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