SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 9 games · updated Jul 30, 2:15 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
No venue is currently selling ≥2.5pts below fair value. Markets are tight right now — that's an honest reading, not a broken screener.
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 07/30 7:10 PM | 150 | 49¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | 07/30 7:10 PM | 149 | 54¢ | 54¢ / 47¢ | 54¢ / 46¢ | – / – |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | 07/30 7:15 PM | 149 | 58¢ | 59¢ / 43¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/30 9:40 PM | 147 | 38¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ | 37¢ / 63¢ | 38¢ / 63¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants | 07/30 9:40 PM | 150 | 59¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ | 59¢ / 42¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/30 10:10 PM | 147 | 59¢ | 60¢ / 41¢ | 59¢ / 41¢ | 60¢ / 40¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun | 07/30 8:00 PM | 153 | 64¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ |
| Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx | 07/30 8:00 PM | 154 | 16¢ | 15¢ / 86¢ | 15¢ / 86¢ | 15¢ / 86¢ |
| Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty | 07/30 10:00 PM | 151 | 63¢ | 65¢ / 36¢ | 66¢ / 35¢ | 64¢ / 37¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
4 venue quote(s) withheld this run: they disagreed with a 20+ book consensus by more than 15 points, which indicates a data fault rather than an opportunity.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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