SharpDelta
The prediction-market fair-value screener · Kalshi & Polymarket vs. the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks · 24 games · updated Jul 28, 7:16 PM ET
Positive Sharp Delta right now
| Team | Vs | Sport | Start (ET) | Venue | Ask | Fair | Sharp Δ | Books |
|---|
| Connecticut Sun | Washington Mystics | WNBA | 07/28 7:30 PM | Polymarket | 30¢ | 33¢ | +2.6 | 146 |
MLB board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/28 6:45 PM | 115 | 56¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ | 57¢ / 43¢ |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | 07/28 7:40 PM | 143 | 48¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | 49¢ / 52¢ |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | 07/28 7:40 PM | 145 | 62¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ | 62¢ / 39¢ | 63¢ / 38¢ |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | 07/28 7:45 PM | 144 | 49¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 50¢ |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | 07/28 9:38 PM | 145 | 50¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/28 9:40 PM | 143 | 67¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ | 68¢ / 32¢ | 68¢ / 32¢ |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | 07/28 9:40 PM | 144 | 42¢ | 43¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ | 42¢ / 58¢ |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/28 9:45 PM | 142 | 43¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ | 42¢ / 59¢ |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners | 07/28 10:10 PM | 141 | 67¢ | 69¢ / 32¢ | 68¢ / 32¢ | 68¢ / 33¢ |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | 07/29 12:10 PM | 60 | 41¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | 41¢ / 60¢ | – / – |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 07/29 12:35 PM | 76 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays | 07/29 1:05 PM | 83 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | – / – |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles | 07/29 1:10 PM | 85 | 60¢ | 61¢ / 40¢ | 61¢ / 39¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/29 1:10 PM | 1 | 40¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | 07/29 3:45 PM | 76 | 48¢ | 48¢ / 53¢ | 48¢ / 52¢ | – / – |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | 07/29 4:10 PM | 72 | 57¢ | 58¢ / 43¢ | 58¢ / 42¢ | – / – |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers | 07/29 6:40 PM | 58 | 55¢ | 55¢ / 46¢ | 55¢ / 45¢ | – / – |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians | 07/29 7:10 PM | 72 | 45¢ | 47¢ / 55¢ | 46¢ / 54¢ | – / – |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | 07/29 7:10 PM | 23 | 41¢ | 57¢ / 44¢ | 41¢ / 59¢ | – / – |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
WNBA board
| Matchup (A vs B) | Start (ET) | Books | Fair A | Kalshi A / B | Polymarket A / B | ProphetX A / B |
|---|
| Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun | 07/28 7:30 PM | 146 | 67¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ | 70¢ / 31¢ |
| Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo | 07/28 8:00 PM | 144 | 89¢ | 91¢ / 10¢ | 91¢ / 10¢ | 92¢ / 10¢ |
| Seattle Storm vs Indiana Fever | 07/28 9:30 PM | 149 | 25¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 23¢ / 78¢ | 24¢ / 78¢ |
| Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty | 07/28 10:00 PM | 148 | 37¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 37¢ / 64¢ | 35¢ / 65¢ |
| Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire | 07/28 10:00 PM | 148 | 84¢ | 86¢ / 14¢ | 86¢ / 15¢ | 87¢ / 14¢ |
Prices are what each side costs right now, in cents per $1 contract, in matchup order (A / B). A venue's two sides usually sum above 100¢ — that's its spread, the equivalent of vig. A positive Sharp Delta is a side selling below fair value despite the spread.
What is Sharp Delta? Sharp Delta = the gap between a venue's ask price (Kalshi, Polymarket) and the de-vigged consensus of 100+ sportsbooks. Positive Sharp Delta means the venue is selling below fair value. Fair value = median de-vigged win probability across every sportsbook in the feed (prediction venues excluded from the consensus). Ask = the implied probability you would pay at that venue right now. Not betting advice; prices move.
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